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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.